SYDNEY, July 18 (Xinhua) -- The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) said on Tuesday that the agency is continuing its "alert" status for El Nino, with the chance of the weather event developing later this year still at 70 percent.
While central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures are exceeding El Nino thresholds, persistent changes in wind, cloud, and broad-scale pressure patterns towards El Nino-like patterns have not been observed by the weather bureau.
According to the BOM's criteria, an El Nino declaration comes out only when a positive reinforcement loop between oceans and the atmosphere occurs. Warmer oceans drive changes in the atmosphere, which in turn warms the ocean even more.
"Global sea surface temperatures are really high at the moment with the months of April, May and June, all setting records for being their warmest respective month on record since 1900," said BOM Senior Climatologist Catherine Ganter.
Though the BOM has not seen an El Nino develop with ocean temperatures broadly this warm, Ganter told reporters that the climatologists are keeping a really close eye on the changing conditions.
"During El Nino, the chance of drier conditions increases for eastern Australia during the winter and spring months, and it's usually warmer for the southern two-thirds of Australia," the expert noted, adding that the phenomenon can increase the risk of extreme temperatures, like heat waves and hotter days.
Last Thursday, the BOM forecasted drier, hotter conditions for August to October in its long-range weather overview, saying that most of Australia is likely to experience below-median rainfall, with a greater than 80 percent chance of above-median maximum temperatures for almost all of the country.
